J.P. Morgan analyst Don Carducci projects Light & Wonder’s stock to reach $103 by the end of 2025, rebounding from its 52-week high of $115 in September. The stock currently trades in the upper $80s.
Legal Challenges and Market Position
The company faced a litigation setback in the U.S., leading to a ban on its Dragon Train game. Despite this, Light & Wonder gained market share, now accounting for 26% of overall sales and units shipped, surpassing Aristocrat and IGT at 20% each.
Growth Opportunities
Carducci highlights key growth drivers, including:
- Strong performance of land-based games
- Expansion into social gaming
- Faster-than-expected iGaming legalization in the U.S.
Potential Risks
Challenges include:
- Slower land-based sales if turnover stagnates
- Rising customer acquisition costs in social gaming
- Delayed iGaming legalization
Impact of the Dragon Train Ban
Following the Dragon Train ban, installs declined slightly in October and stabilized in November. The game had been a key driver of growth, but Light & Wonder’s other top titles—Jewel of the Dragon, Huff N’ More Puff, and Shanlong—continue to perform well.
Market Stability and Future Performance
The company had 4,700 Dragon Train machines installed in Queensland and New South Wales. Despite setbacks, early game conversions have shown promise. Light & Wonder will report Q4 earnings on February 25.
